BABA Stock: buy, sell, and the latest analyst spin
Alibaba's "AI WeChat" Dreams: Or Just Another Overhyped Tech Mirage?
Alright, so Alibaba thinks they're gonna build the next WeChat with their new Qwen app. Ten million downloads in a week? Okay, that's a headline grabber. Shares jump 5%? Sure, Wall Street loves a shiny new toy. But let's be real for a second...are we REALLY buying this hype? Alibaba's New Qwen App Smashes 10 Million Downloads In A Week — And Sends Its Stock Soaring: Analysts See Clear Path To China's Next AI-Era WeChat - Alibaba Gr Hldgs (NYSE:BABA), Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL)
Cloud 9 or Cloudy Outlook?
Bank of America is still slapping a "Buy" rating on Alibaba, even after cutting their price target. Classic. It's always "buy, buy, buy," even when the numbers are kinda sus. Revenue's up, but earnings per share? Not so much. They're blaming increased spending on AI, cloud, and "quick commerce." Oh, the usual suspects. Throw enough buzzwords at the wall, and something's bound to stick, right?
And this "cloud growth" narrative they're pushing? Up 34%, triple-digit growth in AI-related revenue... Sounds fantastic, I guess. But who's actually using this stuff? Are real companies getting real value, or is it just Alibaba selling shovels in a gold rush to themselves? I mean, come on, "AI-related revenue" could mean anything these days.
Quick commerce losses are "improving," they say. Losses dropping by "at least half." That's like saying you only crashed the car slightly this time. It's still a freakin' crash. And e-commerce is showing "near-term weakness." Translation: the golden goose ain't laying golden eggs like it used to. User traffic and engagement are "improving," but if they're not spending money, who gives a rat's ass?
The WeChat Delusion
This whole "AI WeChat" thing...give me a break. WeChat is a cultural phenomenon, a way of life in China. It's not just an app; it's an ecosystem. Thinking you can just slap some AI on a rebranded app and suddenly become the next Tencent is just delusional.
Offcourse, analysts are eating it up. "Potential AI 'Super-App' For China," they're drooling. These are the same analysts who were predicting flying cars and robot butlers ten years ago. They're always chasing the next big thing, regardless of whether it has any basis in reality.
And let's not forget the "stiff competition" from low-cost challengers. DeepSeek is out there slashing prices, and Alibaba's gotta compete. That means more spending, more losses, and more pressure on those already-thin margins.
I'm not saying Alibaba's doomed, but this whole Qwen thing feels like a desperate attempt to recapture some of that old magic. They're throwing everything at the wall and hoping something sticks. And honestly, it's kinda sad to watch.
Then again, maybe I'm the crazy one here. Maybe Qwen really is the future. Maybe I'm just a grumpy old cynic who can't see the forest for the trees. But I doubt it.