BABA Stock: What's *Really* Happening With Its Price

Alibaba's AI Cloud: Smoke and Mirrors or the Real Deal?

So, Alibaba's stock is up because of AI. Color me skeptical. We're supposed to believe that now, after all the regulatory crackdowns and Jack Ma disappearing acts, BABA is suddenly back, leading the AI revolution? Right.

The headline screams "AI-Powered Cloud Revenue Beats Wall Street Estimates!" Okay, but let's dig into that, shall we? The article says their cloud intelligence business delivered $5.59 billion, beating forecasts. Fine. But then it buries the lede: profitability weakened. Non-GAAP EPS missed estimates by a mile. Management blames restructuring and AI investments. Translation: they're throwing money at AI, hoping something sticks, and trying to distract us from the fact that their core business is still flailing.

And they're not the only ones. Everyone's chasing the NVDA dragon. "Market analysts say Alibaba’s heavy spending on AI infrastructure could mirror past winners like NVDA and AMD..." See, this is what I'm talking about. They're just hoping to be the next NVDA. Hope ain't a strategy, people. It's what you tell yourself when you're gambling your life savings away at a casino.

The China Factor: Is This Time Really Different?

Let's be real, investing in Chinese stocks is like playing Russian roulette. One minute you're up, the next the government decides your business model is "unpatriotic" and wipes you out. Remember when everyone was hot for Chinese tech a few years ago? Where are those companies now? Exactly.

This whole "government-backed appliance trade-in program" that supposedly boosted retail sales? It ends December 31st. So, what happens January 1st? crickets, probably. They expect us to believe this is sustainable growth?

Then again, maybe I'm being too harsh. The article mentions analysts setting price targets as high as $200. I mean, some people actually believe PLTR is worth what it is, so... Alibaba stock surges as AI-powered cloud revenue beats Wall Street estimates and lifts BABA share price outlook — Is BABA a Buy?

A Closer Look: Numbers That Don't Add Up

The article proudly proclaims that Alibaba's like-for-like revenue grew around 15%. But then it quietly mentions that profitability is "volatile." Volatile? That's putting it mildly. Their non-GAAP diluted EPS dropped year-on-year. So, they're making more money, but somehow making less profit? That's some kind of financial wizardry right there. Or, you know, just bad management.

And CFO Toby Xu says AI revenue is a "growing share" of cloud sales. Vague much? Give me a number, Toby! Is it 1%? 10%? 50%? Don't insult my intelligence with this corporate-speak garbage.

Speaking of Nvidia (NVDA), everyone's betting the house on AI right now. But what happens when the AI bubble bursts? Are these companies prepared for that? Or are they all just blindly following the hype, hoping to cash in before the music stops?

Oh, and I can't forget the typo I saw. "Offcourse" instead of "of course". That's just great. Makes me trust the whole thing even less.

So, What's the Real Story?

It's the same old song and dance. Hype, hope, and a whole lot of unanswered questions. Alibaba might be making strides in AI, but I'm not convinced it's enough to justify the current stock price surge. I'm staying far, far away.