Uber Stock: The Price, The Earnings, and The Real Story
Alright, let's talk Uber. Shares are up 51% this year? Give me a break. The market's "pleased"? The market's pleased when a dog rolls over. Doesn't mean it's a good investment.
The "Magic" Marketplace
Uber, bless their hearts, wants us to think they're some kind of tech wizard, matching supply and demand with their "mobile app." Oh, the innovation! It's called being a glorified taxi dispatcher, folks, and they take a cut. A big cut.
They brag about $25.1 billion in mobility gross bookings. Gross. Bookings. That ain't profit. That's the total fare before Uber skims off the top. They're just middlemen raking in cash while drivers are out there risking their necks and dealing with entitled drunks.
And don't even get me started on Uber Eats. $23.3 billion in delivery gross bookings? So, we're celebrating the fact that Americans are too lazy to cook or walk to a restaurant? Great.
The "Moat" That Ain't
Network effect, they call it. "As it attracts more riders, drivers, and restaurants, the platform constantly becomes more valuable to all stakeholders." Translation: "We're big, so we're hard to kill." That's not a moat; that's just being a bully on the playground.
Their brand has "tremendous value"? Says who? The marketing department? It's a name people recognize, sure, but it's also synonymous with surge pricing, questionable driver behavior, and that lingering suspicion that your data is being sold to the highest bidder.
Competition from Lyft and DoorDash? Please. They're all fighting for scraps in the same dumpster fire of an industry. Uber’s 189 million monthly active users... okay, that's a lot of suckers using the app.
You know what also has a tremendous network effect? Facebook. And look how THAT turned out for society.
Speaking of competition... I still can't get over the fact that the local pizza joint down the street charges less for delivery and the driver actually knows the neighborhood. Maybe I'm just old school, I don't know.
Ackman's Big Bet: Genius or Gambling?
Bill Ackman, the billionaire hedge fund guy, is apparently all-in on Uber. 30.3 million shares, 20% of his portfolio... Wow.
He's following the "philosophy of Warren Buffett," which apparently means making "concentrated bets on high-quality companies." Uber? High quality? Since when did "burn through cash until you achieve market dominance" become a sign of quality?
Ackman's "bullish on the company." Well, of course he is! He's got billions riding on it. What's he gonna say? "Oops, made a mistake, should have invested in carrier pigeons"?
But here's the real kicker: the stock is down about 11% over the past month. Analysts still see roughly 29% upside to an average 12-month target around $108 , while some models argue the shares are either richly valued on near-term metrics or significantly undervalued on long-term cash flows. So, basically, nobody knows what the hell is going on. Sounds like a solid investment strategy, doesn’t it? What to Know Before Buying Uber Stock
You know what I should do? I should start my own hedge fund. I'll call it "Ryder's Risky Bets," and I'll just throw darts at a stock ticker. Probably get the same results as Ackman.
Are We Being Played?
Here's the bottom line: Uber's success is built on exploiting drivers, charging exorbitant fees, and convincing people that convenience is worth sacrificing their privacy and their wallets. And legal troubles? Uber was fined A$250,000 by the NSW Point‑to‑Point Transport Commissioner after at least 57 Uber Eats drivers were found to have carried out more than 100 unauthorized passenger trips in 2022, in some cases without proper local licences. Offcourse they self-reported, but the damage is done.
Bill Ackman might be a genius, but he's also a master salesman. And we, the investing public, are the marks. Are we really going to let ourselves be taken for another ride?